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Shows and Potential Shutdowns

Jimmys Tractors

Registered
I know my friends and I aren't the only ones that have thought about it. I know of several shows off hand that have canceled or postponed already due to the COVID-29 virus and people not wanting large crowds. Don't know how long all this will last, but we've already made a plan to still steam up if our show in June is canceled or postponed. Our engineers definitely don't meet the "250 people" threshhold and we figure we can all still have a good time that weekend just having the park to ourselves. So I suppose there's still something to look forward to regardless. Anyone else been thinking about it? And please, keep it civil. I know there's a lot of differing opinions regarding the virus.
 

Farquharman

Subscriber
Last Subscription Date
08/26/2019
I think the early spring show in May and I would think the steam schools will most likely be cancelled but at least here (Ohio) are main steam show season does not start until Wauseon at the end of June will go on. All of that is 3 months down the road, right now the worse thing to do is panic.
 

casertractor

Registered
Age
36
Last Subscription Date
04/24/2018
I think at this point with steam/old iron shows it is a wait and see approach in regards to this situation as the show season is still well over two months away and nobody really wants to cancel or postpone their events at this point.As of now i have not heard of any Ontario or Canadian steam/old iron shows being canceled or postponed as of yet but i did hear a few of the toy shows here in Ontario did cancel already
 

slip knot

Subscriber
Last Subscription Date
12/27/2019
The Fredericksburg show is scheduled for May this year. I figure the Wuhan mess will be over by then but they may have to cancel out 60 days early to get deposits back.
 

Beth V

Moderator
Last Subscription Date
03/03/2018
Whats going on with NTA? are they a go this year?
The spring potluck scheduled for April 19 has been postponed until???? We are about 90 days out and everything is in motion, but that could change... It would be FABULOUS if it was a no brainer-let's go! That would mean the worst of this mess was over and the government reduces the restrictions. However, depending on which news you believe...it could last through July into August.

Do what we all should be doing: Praying for those who are infected, that the medical field will gain control over the spread, vaccines perfected, and for people to be logical about the matter.
 

George Hoffman

Sponsor
Last Subscription Date
04/28/2018
After 2 weeks installing a complete new computer system we are back in business.
I am truly amazed how little banter there has been on Stak about this Virus war that is desending upon the world. Here in western Canada we have been in total lock down for about 2 weeks now. No schools ,Rec centers, Churches, weddings, funerals, Sports, Everything involving more than 10 people is canceled.
Today we saw something that has never been done before, the closure of the US Canadian border to all but essential traffic. We have over 1500 trucks a day moving goods both ways over the border so these are exempt.
My wife and I are over 80 so have been in quaranteen now for 2 weeks. The death rate for the Corona Virus for over 80 is 15.4%. Quite alarming.
Seeing we now have lots of time to play with the new computer, here are some alarming figures. On Tuesday the US had 5,300 cases. This morning the number was 7,000. Tonight the number is 8,500 . In Italy they had an increase of 2,300 cases in just 12 hours. World wide the death rate is now at 4%. I hear the argument that more people die from the regular flu than this Covid 19. Here are the figures quoted by the US government. Regular flu deaths is decimal 01 % Think about that for a moment.
So friends this is only the beginning. There will be no shows this year period. Yesterday I received an email from our Boiler Branch that all inspections are cancelled for the future. Just carry on without, as all employees are now home in isolation. All of the fast food restaurants, MacDonalds, Burger King, A& W,Tim Horton's, KFC etc. are drive thru only.
And Beth it doesn't matter which news you watch , the facts are the facts. I see late last week that your guy in the White House and his lakies at Fox News have now quietly dropped the theory that this Covid 19 epidemic was a conspiracy by those " No Good do nothing Democrats."
This afternoon I watched a news conference by Washington State Governor Jay Linsley who spoke about their all out lockdown and effort to stop the virus despite Trump calling him a "Snake". Being their neighbors a few miles to the north We appreciate the effort. He is doing a great job with all hands on deck to try to minimize this deadly virus.
If you can't wrap your head around this virus here is a documentary that is a must see. Google " 1918 Spanish Flu Historical Documentary"
Here are a couple of facts from it. It brought the First War to an end as both sides were too sick and dying to fight. In Spain in the month of June 1918 when the epidemic was at it's height 8 million people died. Yes in one month in Spain only. The flu went from September 1917 to spring of 1919 with a total of between 50 and 75 million deaths.
Regards George.
 

uglyblue66

Subscriber
Last Subscription Date
11/07/2018
George,I wont' dispute anything you said but I have read this comparrison to the Spanish flu several times. There was little to no medical system in that time frame. NOTHING like we have today. I know it is a example of spread and such,but there is major differences in our medical knowledge.I doubt the death toll will be anywhere near those numbers.
 

George Hoffman

Sponsor
Last Subscription Date
04/28/2018
I agree that the medical system is 100 times better today. However we are in the same boat as then. They had no way of stopping the flu. Today we have no way of stopping Covid 19. There are no anti biotics , vaccine or anything else to fight this.. If the patient is very ill the ICU and a ventilator is all they can do.
Cheers
 

uglyblue66

Subscriber
Last Subscription Date
11/07/2018
I agree that the medical system is 100 times better today. However we are in the same boat as then. They had no way of stopping the flu. Today we have no way of stopping Covid 19. There are no anti biotics , vaccine or anything else to fight this.. If the patient is very ill the ICU and a ventilator is all they can do.
Cheers
Thanks for saying it that way,helps me to be able to ask 1 question? Why the concern for over stressing the hospitals here in the US if there is nothing that can be done for it anyway?
 

MFaris

Registered
CDC has the latest influenza mortality at 7.1 percent. Dated feb 29 2020. With 22000 deaths this 2019-2020 season.
Figured a picture might help things, this is from the front page of the CDC Common Flu website:

IMG_20200319_131109_901.jpg

So for the sake of things lets establish some known facts:

- 51,000,000 million cases
- 55,000 deaths
- 1% of 51,000,000 = 510,000
- .01% of 51,000,000 = 51,000

So using these FACTS the mortality rate of the common flu is about .01% +/-


Here are the current Covid19 stats as of 13:23 PST:

IMG_20200319_132235_006.jpg

US mortality rate is +/- 1.5% right now for Covid19.....
 

gnucklehead

Subscriber
Last Subscription Date
07/13/2019
Recommendation: Gatherings limited to 10 people or less, for the next eight weeks. I agree - don't panic. But don't be complacent, either.

There are many that will ultimately not be able to breathe on their own. When there are too many patients than beds and people are dying in their homes, THEN you will be sure that this is a BIG deal. The mortality rate increases when the hospital system becomes overwhelmed. 6-7% mortality rate in Italy, a few days ago. In Madrid, too. The system is over capacity, people are dying in their homes.Barcelona is fairing MUCH better, because they locked-down earlier.

In our little town, big well-known hospital. They built a triage tent in the parking lot. They are advising "Don't come to the hospital unless you are having trouble breathing", so the reported numbers will be a lot lower than the actual numbers.

Without proper identification and isolation, cases will likely double every few days. 2-5 days, depending on various factors. When and how it peaks will depend on the population. Staying home and reducing contact with others is a significant factor in "flattening the curve".

Judging by people's reaction (or non-reaction) and inadequate testing this far along - we in deep kimchi.
 
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MFaris

Registered
From the CDC website
Slip Knot, you're looking at the wrong information, the number you posted is from this statement:

Based on National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance data available on March 12, 2020, 7.1% of the deaths occurring during the week ending February 29, 2020 (week 9) were due to P&I.

It means that 7.1% of all deaths in the USA were caused by Pneumonia or Influenza, it doesn't mean the Flu mortality rate is 7.1%...

Here are the actual numbers for the week ending Feb 29, 2020 you can do the math.

Total mortalities in the USA - 37,656
Total Pneumonia caused mortalities - 2280
Total Flu caused mortalities - 384

That is where the 7.1% comes from.
 

slip knot

Subscriber
Last Subscription Date
12/27/2019
maybe so, very hard to find good data to compare with. everything is reported differently but 7.1 % of weekly mortality isn't good. what would be the weekly Wuhan virus mortality be for the past week?
 
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